J, 31 bytes
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0 bonus points to whoever can provide the probability distribution of each number becoming the last one standing.
┌──┬──────┐
│0 │1/136 │
├──┼──────┤
│1 │2/136 │
├──┼──────┤
│2 │3/136 │
├──┼──────┤
│3 │4/136 │
├──┼──────┤
│4 │5/136 │
├──┼──────┤
│5 │6/136 │
├──┼──────┤
│6 │7/136 │
├──┼──────┤
│7 │8/136 │
├──┼──────┤
│8 │9/136 │
├──┼──────┤
│9 │10/136│
├──┼──────┤
│10│11/136│
├──┼──────┤
│11│12/136│
├──┼──────┤
│12│13/136│
├──┼──────┤
│13│14/136│
├──┼──────┤
│14│15/136│
├──┼──────┤
│15│16/136│
└──┴──────┘
Proof: For example, the system of equations you'd solve for the n=3 case is:
$$
\begin{align}
x_1 &= \frac{x_3}{3} \\
x_2 &= x_1 + \frac{x_3}{3} \\
x_3 &= x_2 + \frac{x_3}{3} \\
x_1 + x_2 + x_3 &= 1
\end{align}
$$
where \$x_1\$ is the chance that number in positon 1 wins, etc -- where 1, if it is not picked the first round, vanishes forever.
The first equation represents that 1/3 of the time \$x_1\$ will be picked and move into position 3, and the rest of the time of vanish. Thus its "value" is 1/3 of \$x_3\$'s.
Similarly, \$x_2\$ will always move into slot 1, where it has \$x_1\$ chance of winning, and 1/3 of the time will also move into slot 3, giving it \$x_3\$ chance of winning. And so on...